A Turning Point for Bolivia
- La Voz Latina
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
Written by: Natalie Arnez 🇧🇴 🇸🇻
After nearly two decades of socialist rule, Bolivia is entering a new era. Rodrigo Paz, a centrist-conservative politician from the Christian Democratic Party, won the presidency, promising to stabilize the country’s economy and restore confidence in its institutions.
As PBS reported, Paz will become “Bolivia’s first conservative leader in decades.” His victory comes after months of political turmoil, economic collapse, and the breakup of the once-powerful Movement for Socialism (MAS), which ruled under Evo Morales and later Luis Arce. Years of tension, protests, and public frustration have left Bolivia deeply divided and eager for change.
For much of the 2000s and 2010s, Bolivia’s socialist governments used booming gas revenues to fund generous social programs and fuel subsidies. The state also took a large share of oil and gas companies' profits, keeping control over the economy. While these populist policies helped reduce poverty in the short term, they were inefficient and unsustainable.
When production stagnated and gas prices crashed, the government failed to adapt, instead relying on dwindling reserves. This, combined with mismanagement and over-reliance on state-controlled investment, contributed to a sharp depreciation of the boliviano and growing economic frustration.
Luis Arce, elected in 2020 after Morales’s controversial attempt to run for a third term, did not have strong public support. Constant infighting between Arce and Morales fractured the ruling party and deepened instability. Amid protests and political tension, including a coup attempt, the government lost public trust.
As Al Jazeera reported, “Arce saw his poll numbers decline. Bolivia’s inflation over the past year has ballooned to its highest level in a decade, and the value of its currency has plummeted.”
Facing growing anger and dwindling support, Arce eventually dropped out of the 2025 race, leaving the MAS fractured and vulnerable.
With this, the race was on between Jorge Quiroga and Rodrigo Paz. Paz campaigned on a message of renewal. He has promised to overhaul the economic system that has defined Bolivia for two decades.
These reforms could reshape Bolivia’s financial future, but they also come with political risks. The country’s economy is fragile, and many Bolivians remain skeptical after years of unmet promises.
Paz also has suggested diversifying Bolivia’s foreign partnerships, potentially reducing reliance on China and increasing cooperation with the United States. While the details are still unclear, this could mark a significant shift in Bolivia’s economic orientation and global relationships.
Bolivia’s vast lithium reserves, one of the largest in the world, also loom over Paz’s presidency. Reuters reported that “Paz has also vowed not to ‘sell out’ the vast Uyuni salt flat famed for its dazzling fields of white salt, a nationally beloved symbol of Bolivia’s national sovereignty and Indigenous heritage.”
While he has not yet detailed how he plans to manage Bolivia’s 23 million metric tons of lithium, many see his leadership as a test of whether the country can attract investment without losing control of its natural wealth.
Diego von Vacano, a Bolivia expert at Texas A&M University, told Kitco News that Paz needs to announce his intentions in the first few months of his presidency for the global mining community to take him seriously. “Otherwise, investors will say, okay, it’s more of the same … and Bolivia might be seen again as having missed the boat.”
Bolivia’s election also reflects broader shifts in Latin American politics. Professor Giancarlo Visconti, an Assistant Professor of Government and Politics and who studies Latin American politics at the University of Maryland, said there are two major lessons from this election for the region.
“First, the region has experienced a clear anti-incumbency bias over the past decade, as incumbent parties have struggled to obtain immediate reelection, with only a few exceptions, such as Mexico,” Visconti said. “While Bolivia was part of that exceptional group, with the MAS in power for two decades, that era came to an end with the latest presidential election. In that sense, it is not surprising to see an alternative in power—as has happened in most other countries in the region—but it is notable to witness the end of the MAS period. This marks what is likely the final chapter of the left’s emergence in the 2000s, symbolized by Chávez in Venezuela, Correa in Ecuador, and Morales in Bolivia.”
He also added that while conservative candidates have gained ground across Latin America, their political styles and agendas differ significantly from country to country.
“On one hand, we have far-right politicians such as Bolsonaro in Brazil and Milei in Argentina. On the other hand, we find more centrist or moderate cases such as Piñera in Chile, Macri in Argentina, and now Bolivia’s newly elected president, Rodrigo Paz. More research is needed to understand the reasons behind these divergent trajectories, especially given how recent these electoral processes are.” Professor Visconti’s analysis places Bolivia’s election within a broader regional trend, highlighting the shifting political landscape across Latin America.
As Paz prepares to take office, Bolivia finds itself in a moment of transition. The end of the socialist era marks a break from the unrest of recent years, yet ushers in a period of uncertainty and rebuilding. The nation now faces the task of rebuilding stability, restoring trust, and finding a sustainable path forward. Only time will tell how things unfold as Paz begins his five-year term on November 8, 2025.